IPPSR Outlook ’08, tracks pollsters as they measure the likely popular vote nationally, identifies battleground states and wraps all into a mathematical projection of Electoral College outcome. It is not meant to predict an outcome, but to offer an analysis focusing on the Electoral College and its importance in the election of a U.S. President. It is an outgrowth of work to update a 2004 IPPSR Policy Brief, Electing a U.S. President (pdf.).
Daily Presidential Polling Results
Monday, Nov. 3, 2008
View analysis as of Friday, Oct. 31, 2008Popular Vote Projections
(Averaged over previous week)
U.S. Sen. John McCain, Republican, 44.1%
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, Democrat, 50.3%
Undecided/Other, 5.6%
Electoral College Projections
Battleground Tally: McCain, 14; Obama, 25
Tied Votes: 11
All other states: McCain, 175; Obama, 313
Total Electoral College votes needed to win: 270
Total Electoral College votes: 538
Battleground StatesThe weekend increased IPPSR's battleground states -- those so close they could go for either candidate -- to five as of the analysis Monday, Nov. 3, 2008, a day before the 2008 presidential election. The battleground states have been mathematically identified in IPPSR's Outlook '08 tracking of the Electoral College. Together, the five states contribute 50 Electoral College votes. In one of the five, popular opinion polls demonstrated a tie.
IPPSR's Outlook '08 analysis is unique for its transparent definition of battleground, or toss-up states. It is also unique in that it breaks from tradition in identifying battleground states by historic voting patterns, and relies instead, on current voter sentiment. IPPSR's Office for Survey Research defines such states on the basis of narrowly divided electorates and a high percentage of undecided voters. More than 400 individual statewide and national polls are reviewed as part of IPPSR's Outlook '08 methodology.
More precisely, IPPSR battlegrounds are those states in which the percentage of respondents who say they are not voting for either of the major candidates is more than twice the difference between those who say they intend to vote for one of the two major candidates.
The latest lineup of IPPSR's Outlook '08 battleground states includes:
Indiana, Tie, 11 Electoral College Votes
Missouri, 11 Electoral College Votes
Nevada, 5 Electoral College Votes
North Dakota, 3 Electoral College Votes
Ohio, 20 Electoral College votes
Daily Battleground Analysis
Friday, Oct. 31, 2008, brought a total of 33 new statewide polls. The resulting changes in the Electoral College:
- Indiana tied up again, at 47-47, slipping from an Obama-lean.
- Missouri dipped McCain's support below 50 percent and moved into battleground status.
- North Carolina dropped enough of its Obama support to be back into the battleground lineup.
- North Dakota broke its previous tie with a 1 percentage point edge for McCain.
Obama's likely Electoral College votes, by Friday's end, stood at 311 plus another 42 from battleground states. McCain's Electoral College votes stood at 160 likely plus 14 battleground.
Obama was the leader in both national polls reported, 49.5 percent to McCain's 44 percent.
Saturday, Nov. 1, 2008 increased Obama's lead in Florida to 3 percentage points, taking that state off the battleground and moving his likely Electoral College tally to 338 plus 15 from battleground states. McCain's total for the day was unchanged. Obama continued to lead the two national polls, 53.5 percent to 42.5 percent for McCain.
By Sunday's end, Nov. 2, 2008, polling results showed:
- Nevada trimmed Obama's lead by 4 percentage points. With 10 percent of the respondents there undecided, Nevada moved into battleground territory.
- North Carolina helped McCain rebound into a 3 percentage point lead in the state.
- Ohio returned to battleground status by shrinking Obama's lead there to 2 percentage points.
As the final campaign weekend closed, Obama finished the week with 313 likely Electoral College votes plus 25 from battleground states. McCain's totals improved to 175 likely Electoral College votes plus another 14 from battleground states.
In national polling, Obama won the six polls reported. The polls left Obama 50.3 percent, McCain 44.1 percent, a margin of 6.2 percent with 5.6 percent of the respondents undecided, voting for another candidate or not voting.
2008 Campaign Perspective
Obama has been in the lead since IPPSR began tracking the polls this summer, except for a time immediately following the Republican Party convention. McCain outpaced Obama for six days --immediately following the GOP convention -- by an average of 1.5 percent.
To put the 2008 race in perspective, George W. Bush had a 2-point edge in the popular vote in 2004, and a 1-point deficit in 2000. Correcting for a two-person race, Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole by 9 percent in 1996 and George H. W. Bush by 7 percent in 1992. The elder Bush defeated Dukakis in 1988 by 8 percent, and Ronald Reagan won over Walter Mondale by 18 percent in 1984.2004 Presidential Polling History
The final polls of 2004 put President George Bush ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry by 222 to 207 Electoral College Votes.
Another 109 Electoral College Votes came from nine states considered "battleground," defined as toss-ups as polls there found less than 2 percent difference between the two candidates.
Those states were: New Hampshire with four votes, Pennsylvania and its 21 votes, Ohio where 20 Electoral College votes were up for grabs, Wisconsin with 10, Minnesota counting 10, Iowa with seven votes, Nevada with five, New Mexico with five and Florida where 27 Electoral College votes could go to either candidate.
In actual voting, the two candidates split the nine states 5-4. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota went to Kerry, who won 252 total Electoral College votes. Bush won Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida and the White House with 286 Electoral College votes.
Notably, the pre-election polls in the states considered solid for each candidate accurately predicted that state's actual winner.A Note On Polling Margin of Error
“Margin of error” is a statistical concept, and technically means that sampling error would produce a statistically significant result 5 percent of the time.
For example, if the actual margin between Obama and McCain is 6 percent, and the margin of error is computed at 3 percent, then 19 times out of 20, the difference between the two candidates would be between somewhere between 3 percent (the result of 6 percent minus 3 percent) and 9 percent (6 percent plus 3 percent).
This computation applies to those polling results from THAT DAY, at that very point in time. The results are a like a photographic snapshot, and essentially freeze public opinion at a single moment.
A point to remember: The latest polls are the best measure of what is the true score right now. Prediction of the future remains a guess, not a guarantee.--Nat Ehrlich, Senior Researcher, Office for Survey Research, Institute for Public Policy and Social Research in the College of Social Science at Michigan State University.
National Poll Results (.pdf)
State-by-State Electoral College Projections (.pdf)
Press Release (Aug. 4, 2008) (.pdf)
Press Release (Aug. 12, 2008) .(pdf)
Press Release (Sept. 17, 2008) (.pdf)
Changes in Electoral Vote, 1981-2010
